Third Quarter 2009 GDP Growth is a Red Herring

United States GDP for the 3rd quarter grew at 3.5% according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis.  The third quarter being the first to see growth since the economic decline about a year ago.  Sounds great — but there’s a red herring.  Cash for Clunkers provided massive unseasonal auto industry demand.  Motor vehicle output grew by a seasonally adjusted 158%.  This growth is clearly unprecedented and we should expect it to decline like a waterfall next quarter — growth never to be repeated again without this type of government incentive.

United States GDP

With Cash for Clunkers providing 1.66% GDP growth, net growth for the quarter was 1.89%.  Still maintaining growth and that’s a good sign.  The one problem with that.  Cash for Clunkers stripped out an unknown amount of future demand for the auto industry; perhaps mostly from the fourth quarter but likely beyond that.  So while the short term gains have been exceptional, the lasting effects of Cash for Clunkers may actually have a negative impact on GDP in the fourth quarter.  Hold on, the ride isn’t over.

Jobless Economic Recovery

A jobless economic recovery is upon us.  Do more with less and only hire when absolutely necessary even when gross revenues, EBITDA and net income are increasing.  Despite economic growth in the 3rd quarter, we’ll continue to see an increase in job loss and unprecedented nationwide unemployment.

The fix is not easy.  We need a long term strategic focus on mathematics, engineering, sciences and health care and to allow international entrepreneurs to build businesses to spur innovation and job growth – manufacturing is for a day long past; our approaches in this sector are antiquated and quickly becoming relic.

Holding on for the ride just isn’t going to cut it.

AT&T Uverse Review

Today was a long time coming.  I haven’t had cable / satellite service for the past 7 months because DirecTV decided they didn’t want to service my home with HD service — so I canceled all of my service with them.  I’ve been dealing with over the air (OTA) DTV.  It hasn’t been bad, but it is incredibly limited; only 5 or 6 English language channels.  After 7 months I finally received word that AT&T Uverse is available in my area — I immediately jumped on it.

I placed my order on Tuesday and had an 8 – 10 AM install window just two days later.  I decided to go with their Uverse TV 450 package with their 18 mbit/s internet package, I left off the phone service since I already carry several cell phones.  Thursday rolls around and I’m at home waiting for the installer.  I selected the first available install time for the day hoping that I wouldn’t be caught up in a later day install where there’s generally delays.  10 AM rolls by and the installer still hasn’t arrived.  I end up calling dispatch to see where the installer is.  A nice gentlemen informs me that it looks like my install slipped between the cracks and he was attempting to find a free installer.  20 minutes later an installer calls me and will be at my home in 30 minutes.

Sure enough he shows up, very polite and gets straight to work.  Finds out that the initial work he did on the pole needed some tweaking so he took off for 20 minutes.  Comes back, everything checks out and then starts to plug in the gear.  In approx. 45 minutes he has everything up and running, gives me a quick run down on the features, hands me his personal cell phone number in case something isn’t up to snuff and takes off to his next job.  I must say the TV quality is very nice.  HD is crisp and clear — no pixel tearing.  Video on demand is smooth and works as expected and the DVR functionality on the receiver and online is seamless.

Next I took the internet for a spin.  Amazingly I was able to pull down 20 mbit/s and upload hovered around 2 mbit/s.  As advertised speeds and it seems very consistent.  I downloaded a weekly video series this evening and was amazed with the speed at which the file came down off the net.  Steady at 1.5 – 1.6 MB/s.

AT&T Uverse

Overall I am very impressed on day 1 of AT&T Uverse.  If you have Uverse available in your area, I’d recommend it over DirecTV in a heartbeat.

Nyle: Let The Beat Build — Great Video

American Express: Where did your customer service go?

First let me say that I’ve been an American Express customer for many many years.  I have also been an investor in American Express (NYSE: AXP); through my 401k and direct investments.  Whenever I needed something, AmEx customer service always took care of me very quickly.  Customer service was always very personable and could generally resolve whatever issue I had in minutes almost without fail.  This is the main reason I’ve carried their card and the reason many businesses large and small depend on their cards.

Recently there’s been a massive change to the way American Express has decided to do business.  Not a single day goes by where I don’t hear a story about American Express leaving long standing clients high and dry in stores and restaurants by declining charges for no reason — later customer service to explain their fraud system thought the charge may be fraudulent even though the same person has shopped at the merchant many times over the last several years.

I’ve also heard of American Express slashing available credit to within $500 of balances without notice.  Handcuffing some of their best clients and destroying credit ratings because revolving credit usage shoots through the roof.  And then there’s the famous offer that American Express has been putting forward.  If a client agrees to pay down their balance by x, AmEx will throw in y.  Some deals have been for every $300 you pay down, AmEx throws in $50.  The deal also includes you having to close your account or a reduced credit limit — both hurting your credit rating.

I understand that American Express is attempting to mitigate massive risk with the new economy.  Write downs hurt.  AmEx like other banks will take beatings from the analysts once a quarter.  That’s just part of a public companies life.  But AmEx is getting away from what made them so great — customer service.  American Express was truly a service company that happened to offer credit cards and other services.

American Express card holders gloss over the annual card holder fees because all clients know they’re paying for unsurpassed customer service.  Whether you needed last minute show tickets, have fraudulent charges, lost your card and needed a next day replacement or need to get a ticket for a flight leaving in 10 minutes, they always managed to pull it off.  But now it almost seems like American Express is firing clients, some for no good reason, in an attempt to mitigate their risk.

I know of two Centurion clients (you know, those famous American Express Black Cards) who have decided to stop using their cards after 15+ years in lieu of their Chase cards.  This should be a big deal for American Express.  These clients are generating tens of thousands of dollars a year in merchant fees for them.

American Express.  You’ve put yourself in a really bad spot.  It took you years, maybe even decades to create a brand based on exceptional customer service.  And in just a few months you’ve tarnished your brand.  Your shortsightedness will cost you dearly in the long run.